9/2/15

Another sign we might be in a recession

 


Backlogs of durable goods declined -0.5% y/y.

This is the exact value they had in the midst of the 2000 and 2009 recessions.

And then they wonder why commodities are sinking.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Are we in a recession?

 

It is no surprise the market is plunging, commodities are sinking and yields are declining.

The above chart shows the decline in factory orders in the past 12 moths. The weakness in orders (and other data we follow) suggests the economy is growing very slowly and may even be in a recession.

I always said to avoid commodity sensitive sectors when the economy is sluggish. This business cycle has been no exception.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

8/7/15

Seasonality of health care stock


In the past 5 years health care stocks (XLV) have risen 75% of the times in September, 75% of the times in October and 100% of the times in November.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Another bear market signal

 

The advance-decline line broke its 200dma weeks ago (see previous posts). Now the DJIA is well below its 200dma (see above chart). Profits are falling as the economy is slowing down.

One more trend we found compelling - our proprietary indicators are saying financial risk is rising. This is trend particularly meaningful because all major bear markets (or corrections) have been accompanied by rising financial risk.

The fact that long-term Treasury bonds have strengthened suggests big money is looking for safety.

These are important bear market signs. For a detailed analysis of the financial and economic environment and a real-time read of our indicators please review the latest issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

8/1/15

A bear market signal

 

The advance-decline of the NYSE (stocks only) finished July below the 200dma.

The market has lost considerable momentum and the weakness of the advance-decline could very well imply bad news for equities.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

7/28/15

Is a recession around the corner?

 
 


Durable good orders - non defense ex aircraft - have been plunging.  They declined -6.6% y/y.

It should come as no surprise commodities are sinking and the market is going nowhere.

Is a recession around the corner?

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

7/23/15

Profits point to trouble ahead

 


The trend of profits after tax is worrisome. Why?

They decline well ahead of a recession and an equity bear market.

Something to watch closely.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

7/14/15

Bond yields to head lower

 

This proprietary indicator (blue line) is closely correlated to 10-year Treasury bond yields (red line).

The sharp decline in our indicator suggests the likely direction for bond yields is down.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

7/7/15

If the economy is so strong, how come commodities are crushing?

 

Copper, like most commodities, is sinking. The above trend is absolutely dramatic. Why?

Commodity prices are very sensitive to economic growth. It looks like things are not so rosy as they want us to believe.

Stay tuned.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period,  and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

A bearish sign

 

The S&P 500 moved higher in the past 2 years and the trend was best identified by its 125 day moving average.

The problem is a break below a reliable trend/moving average is a sign of caution - as it happened recently.

It means the trend has changed and the longer is the time spanned by the trend and more meaningful is the change in trend.

Will the recent occurrence be different? Time will tell, of course

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period,  and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.