2/9/16

Heading for a recession


I review this chart in almost every issue of my The Peter Dag Portfolio. It shows an important relationship between sales and inventories.

The point is very simple. When sales rise more slowly than inventories - as they are doing now - business will have to reduce production to bring inventories in line with sales.

The outcome is lower economic growth, weak commodities, lower yields, and weak EPS.

You will encourage me to update this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio.

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

2/8/16

The bear market will end when....


The above chart shows one of our indicators measuring financial risk. Financial risk has been rising since the beginning of 2015. And since 2015 the market has performed poorly.

The same pattern you see in 2008-2009. And you know what happened then.

The bear market will end following a visible decline in our financial risk indicators. We review them in each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio.

You will encourage me to update this blog on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio.

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

2/6/16

Recession ahead?


The red line shows the shape of the yield curve. The yield curve keeps flattening (the red line is declining).

Note: peaks and bottoms in the yield curve lead by several months peaks and bottoms of consumer spending (blue line).

Bottom line - because of the flattening of the yield curve the odds favor a major slowdown in consumer spending.

Implications - weak commodities, lower EPS, stable or lower Treasury bond yields, and stocks going nowhere at best.

You will encourage me to update this blog more frequently on the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio.

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.



2/4/16

Bear market signal


The above graphs show financial risk is soaring  among European banks (source: ZeroHedge).

The Peter Dag Portfolio regularly documents the change of several proprietary indicators measuring financial risk.

Financial risk measures are crucial for stock market investors. A rise in financial risk is a reliable signal which has always preceded bear markets.

You will encourage me to update this blog with my assessment of what is happening to the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio.

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

1/28/16

These data scream recession


Business keeps cutting capital investment (see chart, source: ZeroHedge). Growth has been deep in negative territory for some time. Profits, meanwhile, keep declining as well.

Capital investment is the main ingredient for increasing profits because it improves productivity. It is also a harbinger of stronger business conditions.

This trend is worrisome and reflects a struggling economy neutered by misguided monetary policy and political management.

You will encourage me to update this blog with my assessment of what is happening to the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio.

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.




1/27/16

A major change in trend?


The S&P 500 broke below a major long-term moving average. This is a bearish sign, suggesting market's momentum has changed in a major way.

The above moving averages are very important to signal when the market is regaining momentum on the upside.

You will encourage me to update this blog with my assessment of what is happening to the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio.

Thank you for visiting this site.


George Dagnino, PhD
Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.


1/18/16

Is a rally in the making?

 
The number of bears among individual investors has reached extreme levels (see above chart).

The odds favor a rally from a contrarian viewpoint. If it happens, what should you do? Should you start buying stocks again? Or, take this opportunity to go even more short?

The answer to these questions will be given by our proprietary indicators measuring momentum and financial risk.


You will encourage me to update this blog with my assessment of what is happening to the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio.

Thank you for visiting this site.


George Dagnino, PhD
Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

1/15/16

Equity markets perfectly synchronized - down.


I always enjoy listening to the "sell side" opining to invest in Latin America or Emerging Markets or Europe (see above chart courtesy of ZerohHedge).

The fact of life is that at major turning points all stock markets behave in the same way - some better than others but always in the same direction. Up or down.

This time is no different. Equity markets are sinking around the globe.

You will encourage me to update this blog with my assessment of what is happening to the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio.

Thank you for visiting this site.


George Dagnino, PhD
Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Recessions and financial markets


For several months I have documented the economic slowdown we are witnessing right now. Please re-visit previous posts.

The relentless decline in all commodities from crude oil to lumber (see above chart) reflect the dangerous weakening of the economy. The reason commodities are declining is because demand for goods and services is weak and weakening. Not surprisingly Treasury bonds are doing well in this environment

The slumping commodities point to soft earnings and a volatile stock market.

You will encourage me to update this blog with my assessment of what is happening to the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio.

Thank you for visiting this site.
George Dagnino, PhD
Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

1/12/16

Are consumers in trouble?


Retail sales ex-autos are sinking, down on a year-on-year basis (see above chart - source: BofA). 

The decline in crude oil has not helped consumers. The decline in crude oil is the outcome of the lack of spending by the consumers.

These data are updated regularly for our subscribers. They tell them what to do and how to approach the stock market.

You will encourage me to update this blog with my assessment of what is happening to the economy and financial markets by entering a subscription to The Peter Dag Portfolio

Thank you for visiting this site.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor,
The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.