8/1/15

A bear market signal

 

The advance-decline of the NYSE (stocks only) finished July below the 200dma.

The market has lost considerable momentum and the weakness of the advance-decline could very well imply bad news for equities.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

7/28/15

Is a recession around the corner?

 
 


Durable good orders - non defense ex aircraft - have been plunging.  They declined -6.6% y/y.

It should come as no surprise commodities are sinking and the market is going nowhere.

Is a recession around the corner?

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

7/23/15

Profits point to trouble ahead

 


The trend of profits after tax is worrisome. Why?

They decline well ahead of a recession and an equity bear market.

Something to watch closely.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

7/14/15

Bond yields to head lower

 

This proprietary indicator (blue line) is closely correlated to 10-year Treasury bond yields (red line).

The sharp decline in our indicator suggests the likely direction for bond yields is down.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period, and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

7/7/15

If the economy is so strong, how come commodities are crushing?

 

Copper, like most commodities, is sinking. The above trend is absolutely dramatic. Why?

Commodity prices are very sensitive to economic growth. It looks like things are not so rosy as they want us to believe.

Stay tuned.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period,  and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

A bearish sign

 

The S&P 500 moved higher in the past 2 years and the trend was best identified by its 125 day moving average.

The problem is a break below a reliable trend/moving average is a sign of caution - as it happened recently.

It means the trend has changed and the longer is the time spanned by the trend and more meaningful is the change in trend.

Will the recent occurrence be different? Time will tell, of course

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period,  and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

7/4/15

Profits - a sign of caution for the market

 

Profits after tax as a percent of GDP is at extreme levels. Is it bad for stocks? Three implications.

1. The high level of the ratio suggests the market is likely to appreciate at slow pace.

2. The time to worry is when profits after tax peak.

3. The market should be ok as long as profits rise.

Stay tuned.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period,  and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.


7/2/15

The problem with our world

 

 What are they doing to our world? Nations fail because of concentration of power. It is difficult to quantify this concept. So, let’s look at the results - how fast an economy is growing and its pace of wealth creation (productivity growth). A subpar pace and poverty is an indication the political system has become too pervasive. Too concentrated. Too obsessive. Too regulated.

I have always been negative about the outlook for China. Why? Because it is a dictatorship - like the USSR, Cuba, Venezuela, and many other struggling countries.

If we are disappointed about the growth of our economy it may very well be the outcome of excessive concentration of power in the hands of a few economic players - whatever the reasons may be - rightly or wrongly. The markets and the sluggish economy are saying it is happening. People’s discontent confirms it.

The same has been taking place in Europe. I have been writing about it for many years. The EU idea is not working because of concentration of power in the hands of a few unelected and untaxed bureaucrats who have been building sumptuous offices in Brussels and Frankfurt while the populace is struggling in poverty.

The EU idea is wrong. You cannot put together countries with very different cultures, languages, productivity differentials. The country with the highest productivity (Germany) is going to gobble up the others reducing them to poverty because investments flow toward the country with more wealth-generation capabilities.

The same is happening in the US. But in a much smaller scale than in Europe. Productivity differentials among our states create invisible local dollars. For instance, Ohio’s main employers are government and healthcare. When I go to Greenwich, CT everything is more expensive because the Ohio Dollar is much weaker than the Connecticut Dollar. Ohio is producing less wealth than Connecticut. The OH$ is worth less than the CT$.

The point is the markets always win. Concentration of power reduces productivity growth (wealth generation). And productivity differentials create imbalances as in Europe, thus producing poverty and financial volatility.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period,  and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

Stocks at a critical juncture

 

The market is at a critical juncture from a technical viewpoint.

Note how the 125dma (blue line) has identified a solid uptrend for the market and is now playing the role of a crucial support.

SPY bounced above the 125dma every time it touched it in the past 2 years with only one exception - October 2014. Watch out below if stocks break below the 125dma. They could decline to or below the 200dma (red line).

This is the reason stocks are a critical juncture.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period,  and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.

6/28/15

Bond futures soaring...right now

 

The uncertainties created by the European issues with Greece are sending yields much lower and bond prices soaring.

George Dagnino, PhD
Editor, The Peter Dag Portfolio
Since 1977
Author, Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets


Disclaimer. The content on this site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.


Subscribe now and learn "EASY WAYS TO BEAT THE MARKET WITH ETFs". Several portfolios back-tested from 2000 are shown in the subscribers' area on our website (www.peterdag.com) when you subscribe. Total returns, annualized returns, maximum losses during the period,  and number of transactions are shown for each portfolio. The rules are easy to follow and you will find them in the appendix of each issue of The Peter Dag Portfolio. These portfolios are provided as a service to our subscribers.